The Research Team at ANZ offered its insights on the inflation data due out from New Zealand on Tuesday, July 18th.
“The headline CPI for June is likely to have come in at 0.2 percent sequentially and at 1.9 percent year-on-year, which is a slowdown from the first quarter’s figure of 2.2 percent year-on-year.
Some of the typically volatile components are likely to provide countering movements in the quarter.
Food prices are expected to have positively contributed to the headline figure despite already recording the biggest quarterly rise in six and a half years in the first quarter.
Subdued autumn weather has resulted in a spike in fruit and vegetable prices that is looking unlikely to unwind until new season product hits the shelves in spring.
A decline in petrol price would greatly counter this. Falling petrol looks set to heavily weigh on the third quarter figures dragging annual inflation down to 1.8 percent as the inflation boost from oil prices globally does a sharp U-turn”