GBP/USD: UK jobs data to provide markets with a dovish reality check – ING

Analysts at ING see the GBP/USD pair trading with a bearish bias in the week ahead, in a range between 1.2750 – 1.3080.

Key quotes:

“The May UK labour report (Wed) will probably come as a disappointment to MPC hawks banking on the Phillips Curve – that is low employment rate translating into higher labour costs – coming good. While job gains are likely to remain resilient (ING: +127K), a slowdown in headline wage growth to 1.8% will add little macro support to calls for a Nov. BoE rate hike.”

“With the BoE tightening debate more of a 2018 story, a dovish repricing at the front-end of the UK OIS curve remains a risk to GBP in the near-term.”

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