Forex today: US turns risk-on ahead of Super Thursday trio risk events


Forex today was volatile.

The markets mixed have been choppy leading into Super Thursday’s event risk trio with the UK elections, the ECB and Comey’s testimony of which the markets already got a flavour of from the Senate Intelligence Committee.

Oil was a big mover today with crude stocks up sharply for this time of year. Tensions in the ME continue to be ignored. Risk on was the theme later in the day and the DXY was higher by 0.03% and 10-year yields rose +1.45% at 2.1763. The June rate hike odds are up at 95% underpinning strength in the greenback.

The other big story was around the ECB. There have been conflicting ‘sources’ with stories regarding the ECB’s intentions tomorrow and the euro was volatile (1.1283-1.1203). USD/JPY rallied 78 pips with stocks to 109.83  while gold dropped sharply to 1,282 lows by $14.00. GBP/USD with a high of 1.2974 continues to grind higher with polls continuing to offer a Conservative lead and markets more confident of solid victory tonight, 10 PM BST, when the exit polls will be announced. USD/CAD rallied up to the 1.35 handle, 1.3526 the high with CAD hit hard on oil. AUD  moved through and above the 200 dma for the first time in six weeks and scored 0.7567 highs before settling into a chop on the 0.75 handle while Kiwi was range bound and choppy within a sideways channel of 0.7168 and 0.7206.

Key events ahead 

  • AU: trade balance 
  • China: trade balance
  • Japan: GDP 

Key notes from US shift

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