Currently, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1210, down -0.42% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.1270 and low at 1.1195.
EUR/USD has been pressured to the downside today with the ECB leaving key rates unchanged while revising its forecasts for inflation lower on an annual basis until 2019. The Central Bank also removed some accommodative wording. The QE programme is still expected to run until the end of the 2017 or longer if need be.
ECB’s Mario Draghi said in the presser:
- “Core inflation has yet to show a convincing upward trend”.
- “Inflation now sees at: 1.5% in 2017, 1.3% in 2018 and 1.6% in 2019, vs. previous 1.7%, 1.6% and 1.7%, respectively”.
Attention quickly moved to Comey’s testimony today and the dollar was firmer leading into the event. The DXY has found ground above the 97 handle and made a high of 97.158. 1.1200 has come under pressure with sweeping bids across the board in the dollar earlier and made the lowest low since the end of May’s business.
In respect of Comey, so far there has not been anything at all conclusive and if anything, all sounds a little too deflective. However, the Criminal Investigation would not be complete without his testimony, but there will not be any conclusions drawn from this today put to the public as to whether Trump colluded with Russia:
- “Do you believe Donald Trump colluded with Russia?”
- Comey: “That is a question I don’t think I should answer in an open setting. That’s a question that will be answered by the investigation.”
The open testimony has just ended and Comey will brief Senators in a closed session later today. The end result is slightly lower 10-years yields (2.2112% – 2.2007%) and a lower USD/JPY pressuring the 110 handle to the downside.
1.1300 has been the major barrier for EUR/USD as being the November 2016 high. Bears have taken control at 1.1280 and have jeopardised the recent uptrend from 1.1108 30th May lows.
“We note the divergence of the daily RSI and the daily Elliot wave count, which is suggesting that we allow for a retracement back to circa 1.1010. This guards the 200-day ma at 1.0823,” argued analysts at Commerzbank.