AUD/USD forms Doji candle, eyes Aussie housing data & China PMI


AUD/USD formed a Doji candle on Friday, which signals bullish exhaustion, although traders are still expected to wait for confirmation (bearish follow through) before calling a top. The spot clocked a high of 0.7712 before surrendering gains to close at 0.7682 on Friday.

Australia PMI ticks higher in June

The Australia manufacturing PMI for June rose to 55.00 from the previous month’s figure of 54.8. The details revealed that, “production expanded to the greatest degree of 2017 so far, while new work rose at the strongest rate since March”. Australia’s service sector also remained comfortably inside expansionary territory during June.

The upbeat data helped the Aussie clock a session high of 0.7695. The Aussie 10-year bond yield clocked a high of 2.66% (highest since May 11).

The next move in the Aussie largely depends on the TD securities inflation data, ANZ job advertisements data and building permits data. A weaker figure could add credence to Friday’s Doji candle; however, it would take a weaker-than-expected China Caixin PMI number to push the spot lower in the red.

AUD/USD Technical Levels

The area above 0.77 handle has acted as a stiff resistance zone since Apr 2016. Friday’s Doji candle around 0.77 is thus bad news. Only a daily close above 0.7712 (Friday’s high) would open up upside towards 0.7778 (Nov 2016 high) and 0.78 (zero levels). On the other hand, a break below 0.7667 (Fri’s low) could yield a sell-off to 0.7636 (June 14 high) and 0.76 (zero figure).

The daily RSI is close to being overbought, although the 5-DMA and 10-DMA are still sloping upwards.

 

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