Trading Outlook: USD Bearish, JPY-Crosses Bearish, Gold & Oil Correcting


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Today, we continued to focus on USD bearishness and look for more to come. EURUSD is working on breaking free towards the 2016 high around 11600. GBPUSD has pulled back into support and is looking to make a turn higher. USDJPY and some of the Yen-crosses (GBPJPY, NZDJPY, CADJPY) put in nice reversal bars yesterday at resistance levels and looking to shed some pips from here. NZDUSD remains the lone USD-bullish play in our book at the time. USDMXN turned lower from resistance last week and is now nearing key support. A break soon could see it move towards 17.08.

Gold and silver are both seeing recovery bounces, but look likely to only be corrective at this time. On another turn lower, silver could find itself at a major long-term line of support extending higher from 2003; this would certainly pique our interest from the long-side should we see a move down there.

Crude oil is experiencing a nice bounce, but could soon run into trend-line trouble; 47 is viewed as high as the bounce will unfold before turning back lower. Overall, outlook for crude remains bearish with eyes for the 30s at some point.

Indices are still in a precarious position with the DAX and CAC both still looking poise to fill the French election gap. The FTSE 100 is trying to break out of a nearly two-week long range, but need to be careful on any breakout as levels are close at hand on both sides. The S&P 500 still looks heavy, but needs to drop below 2405 to confirm any kind of top. The Nasdaq 100 was also in focus and could soon turn back down if it can’t get going here in the next day or two.

For the full outlook, please see the video above…

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—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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