Technical Outlook Post-CB Meetings: USD, GBP, JPY, Gold & More


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Following several central bank meetings this week, we looked at the technical landscape of several currencies. We started out by looking at the US Dollar Index (DXY) which put in a sharp reversal day following the outcome of the FOMC. Yesterday, we saw some follow-through which may lead to higher prices in the near-term, but will soon run into a potential confluence of resistance depending on the timing. EURUSD is in the vicinity of support and will need to hold to maintain its neutral to bullish stance. GBPUSD got a spark yesterday following the BoE, but is failing to gain enough momentum to push on through resistance – outlook remains bearish below Wednesday’s reversal-day high. USDJPY is breaking on through a confluence of resistance but has a longer-term zone of resistance not far ahead near 11200. The BoJ brought little excitement overnight.

GBPJPY held a long-term trend-line and is trying to break an intermediate-term downtrend line; this could result in a set-up to the long-side as we head through next week. EURAUD, EURNZD, GBPAUD, and GBPNZD are all attempting to mount recoveries off support, risk is skewed to the upside in the near-term.

Gold once again was rejected around the 2011 trend-line, and is now below the critical 1260s. It was once support, but is now viewed as resistance, and the short-term bias is lower as long as we don’t see a close above 1267. Silver in line with gold looks headed lower, targeting 16.20/25 on further weakness.

Crude oil continues to decline in line with a bearish view we’ve held for a couple of weeks. A test of 43.80 looks soon upon us. Lower prices expected overall.

The S&P 500 is getting wedged up between a couple different angles of support and resistance. Market is still postured constructively. The DAX is stuck in an ascending wedge, we await a resolution before drawing any further conclusions. The FTSE 100 pushed through an important area of support on the BoE, but staged a recovery back above – still supported until it’s not.

For full technical considerations, please see the video above…

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—Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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